Having read Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis back in the 80's and having learned of the deceit rife in the financial markets, I was surprised at the time when Warren Buffett took the leadership role at Solomon Brothers. This was partially offset by his actions to correct the bad behavior of the employees there.
Then in 2009 he once again took a large stake in the even less reputable Goldman Sachs (GS). All this was justified by the enormous returns he, or rather Berkshire Hathaway, was promised by the investment.
However, when the SEC recently filed a fraud suit against GS, the only response from the Buffett camp was a defense of GS. Legal guilt or innocence has little to do with the reality. When a person violates the law, they have violated the law, regardless of whether there is a court ruling to that effect. A person is dead when they are dead, not when the death certificate is issued.
Buffett's action or lack of action damages his reputation. He now falls into the same class as GS.
domenica 25 aprile 2010
giovedì 18 marzo 2010
Consumer Price Index versus Cost of Living
The Consumer Price Index or CPI is a broad price index which is subject to manipulation by government bodies interested in making the public feel less apprehensive about the cost of living.
It does not really reflect my, or probably most people's true cost of living. My cost of living has few relatively fixed components such as house insurance and many variable components like car repair. The variable components can be vastly more than the fixed ones. For example, a new house roof can cost tens of thousands.
As the government says, a person can substitute a less costly item for a more costly item to reduce their cost of living.
Just as Anheuser Busch deep freezes cans of Budweiser so they can compare the taste of a current brew with a brew from 30 years before, it is possible to make long time frame comparisons. A VW in 1970 cost about 2k while a similar one in 2010 costs about 10 times as much. The newer one may be better in many respects but it travels the same distance in about the same time. And the main purpose of a VW is transport not entertainment. A 2010 college education in English Literature at the University of Houston costs about 10 times as much as a 1970 program at the same school and in many subjects is virtually identical.
So meaningful gross long term comparisons in the cost of living can be made.
Devious people in government and business count on this inflation to make people feel better and to reduce the cost of long term debt. The stock market counts on it to make it look like stocks are a good investment although the dividend yield has gone down over the last 30 years.
In summary, the CPI is relatively useless and you can somewhat control your cost of living by adjusting your spending to match your financial resources.
It does not really reflect my, or probably most people's true cost of living. My cost of living has few relatively fixed components such as house insurance and many variable components like car repair. The variable components can be vastly more than the fixed ones. For example, a new house roof can cost tens of thousands.
As the government says, a person can substitute a less costly item for a more costly item to reduce their cost of living.
Just as Anheuser Busch deep freezes cans of Budweiser so they can compare the taste of a current brew with a brew from 30 years before, it is possible to make long time frame comparisons. A VW in 1970 cost about 2k while a similar one in 2010 costs about 10 times as much. The newer one may be better in many respects but it travels the same distance in about the same time. And the main purpose of a VW is transport not entertainment. A 2010 college education in English Literature at the University of Houston costs about 10 times as much as a 1970 program at the same school and in many subjects is virtually identical.
So meaningful gross long term comparisons in the cost of living can be made.
Devious people in government and business count on this inflation to make people feel better and to reduce the cost of long term debt. The stock market counts on it to make it look like stocks are a good investment although the dividend yield has gone down over the last 30 years.
In summary, the CPI is relatively useless and you can somewhat control your cost of living by adjusting your spending to match your financial resources.
mercoledì 27 gennaio 2010
Underwater home values
The time to handle underwater home values is when the loan is made, not later. For example, in Italy you can not get a mortgage for more than 60% of the value of a house unless you are a bank employee in which case it goes up to 70%. Having put 30 to 40% of the price of a house as a down payment means people are more likely to take an interest in maintaining the value of a house. Of course this requires the patience to accumulate a down payment. While Italians are typically very impatient in traffic, they are more patient than Americans financially. Most Europeans are raised to avoid excessive debt. Americans are constantly encouraged to build more debt. A very bad approach that is now bearing fruit: poisonous fruit.
sabato 16 gennaio 2010
A case for astrology
The claims that astrology or the position of celestial bodies could influence people seemed to be based solely
upon non-scientific reasons. In 2000 I heard it discussed on a TV stock market broadcast that possibly
market behavior could be predicted using astrological techniques.
But basically astrology is just about relating the position of the stars to the time of year.
A couple years ago there was a study that traced the unusually high incidence of spina bifida in Scotland to insufficient folic acid in the fetus at a certain stage of development.
This means that if foods high in folic acid are not available at a certain time of year, it could affect the development of babies conceived some time before that.
So in this case the season or astrology does influence the future of the baby.
upon non-scientific reasons. In 2000 I heard it discussed on a TV stock market broadcast that possibly
market behavior could be predicted using astrological techniques.
But basically astrology is just about relating the position of the stars to the time of year.
A couple years ago there was a study that traced the unusually high incidence of spina bifida in Scotland to insufficient folic acid in the fetus at a certain stage of development.
This means that if foods high in folic acid are not available at a certain time of year, it could affect the development of babies conceived some time before that.
So in this case the season or astrology does influence the future of the baby.
A case for ghosts
Someone leaves a seat and a few minutes later you sit in the same seat.
You can feel the heat from the previous occupant of the seat. Maybe it was a soft seat of a material like leather or plastic that holds the shape for a while so you can tell roughly the size of the person.
A person you know leaves a room and some time later you enter the room and recognize their cologne.
In each case although the person is gone, there is a residual indication left inadvertently by the person.
Birds have senses for direction that people do not seem to have, but there may be in some people a form of this sense which helps them to have a keener sense of direction.
So although we do not know definitely all the senses that human beings have, it is possible that some people have unrecognized abilities to sense things other people cannot.
It is possible that when people die, there is a residue left behind that some, but not most, people can sense.
Possibly the residue is more apparent in some cases than others.
These factors could explain the perception of so-called ghosts.
You can feel the heat from the previous occupant of the seat. Maybe it was a soft seat of a material like leather or plastic that holds the shape for a while so you can tell roughly the size of the person.
A person you know leaves a room and some time later you enter the room and recognize their cologne.
In each case although the person is gone, there is a residual indication left inadvertently by the person.
Birds have senses for direction that people do not seem to have, but there may be in some people a form of this sense which helps them to have a keener sense of direction.
So although we do not know definitely all the senses that human beings have, it is possible that some people have unrecognized abilities to sense things other people cannot.
It is possible that when people die, there is a residue left behind that some, but not most, people can sense.
Possibly the residue is more apparent in some cases than others.
These factors could explain the perception of so-called ghosts.
giovedì 14 gennaio 2010
The World Health Organization
If the following statement from an article on Bloomberg is correct, I have little confidence in any estimates coming from the WHO:
About 33.4 million people were infected with the AIDS- causing virus worldwide as of the end of 2008, according to the WHO, making it the world’s most prevalent infectious disease.
How can they state 33.4 million? If they said about 30 million, or tens of millions, I could accept it, but there are so many reasons for it NOT being about 33.4 million that it reflects upon the integrity of anyone giving such a precise number.
A similar situation occurred after the Pacific tsunami which eventually killed over 200, 000 people. The initial numbers were invariably precise: 2,581, then 31,528. All ridiculous to anyone on the spot or who had seen images of the devastation.
About 33.4 million people were infected with the AIDS- causing virus worldwide as of the end of 2008, according to the WHO, making it the world’s most prevalent infectious disease.
How can they state 33.4 million? If they said about 30 million, or tens of millions, I could accept it, but there are so many reasons for it NOT being about 33.4 million that it reflects upon the integrity of anyone giving such a precise number.
A similar situation occurred after the Pacific tsunami which eventually killed over 200, 000 people. The initial numbers were invariably precise: 2,581, then 31,528. All ridiculous to anyone on the spot or who had seen images of the devastation.
mercoledì 13 gennaio 2010
Where is the Transportation Security Administration when you need them?
About 3000 people have been killed by aircraft terrorists in the last 10 years.
In the same period roughly 200,000 people in the US have been killed in car accidents (if that is really the term for it) involving drunken drivers.
So why is so much attention given to the terrorists and so little to drunken drivers? TSA should have agents patrolling the roads all over the country between 1700 and 0300 looking for drunken drivers. It would give lots of people jobs, sell lots of cars to the TSA, and reduce the number of people who die on the roadways.
In the same period roughly 200,000 people in the US have been killed in car accidents (if that is really the term for it) involving drunken drivers.
So why is so much attention given to the terrorists and so little to drunken drivers? TSA should have agents patrolling the roads all over the country between 1700 and 0300 looking for drunken drivers. It would give lots of people jobs, sell lots of cars to the TSA, and reduce the number of people who die on the roadways.
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