Milano on Corona-time Early March

The plan was for Wally to stay at Niguarda until she was well enough to go to another closer hospital for rehabilitation.
On March 2 Irina the 27-year-old daughter of my friend Nadeshda in Moscow arrived for a 5 day stay in Como and Milan.  It was rainy.  We agreed to meet at the funicular to Brunate for lunch on Tuesday March 3.  There were no crowds so we found each other easily and went to a cafe on the lake for a pizza.  She said she had been to many countries in Europe with groups but had not been to Switzerland.  I checked my watch.  I wanted to catch the 1516 train back to Milan and it was 1300.  We caught the Como city bus which goes to the border with Switzerland in Chiasso.  There are buses which stop at the customs gate and those with pass through.  The one we took passed into Chiasso.  No one checked us at all but we were the only ones on the bus.  We got out when the bus stopped and walked back through the customs port to the Como bus stop.  We took the bus to the center of Como.  I showed Irina where the shopping disctrict was while I walked to the train station to catch my train.  All was normal.  No checks, no masks.

Nad told me Irina's return flight on March 6 to Moscow had been delayed to the 8.  Irina bought a ticket for another airline from Bergamo on the 6.  When she arrived in Moscow there were immigration people in full hazmat gear.  She is in self-quarantine at home until the 20 March.

The plan was for Wally to stay at San Luca, the rehab hospital until about March 18 but they started releasing healthy people early to free beds and staff.  Wally came home after lunch on Thursday March 12.  She was feeling good but not like a year ago.  She had done exercises at San Luca but still needed more rest and exercise.

When Wally arrived at San Luca, I could go to her room with no checks and no mask.  By the time she left I had a temperature check at the elevator and could not enter her ward.  We passed laundry through the door.

Milano on Corona-time February 2020

Oskar and I came into Milan in mid-February.  We put Oskar with the dog sitter about Feb. 14.  Wally was admitted to Niguarda Feb. 17 with the surgery on Wednesday the 19. 
All went well.
Niguarda is a very large hospital complex.  I stayed at Wally's flat and took the metro/tram ride in the late morning then again in the early evening.
She was kept there until early March.  There was a little talk of the virus but few people wore masks even in the hospital.

Milano on Corona-time Preface

The last months of 2019 were very active for both my wife Wally and me.
Wally had been treated for breast cancer 5 years earlier with radiation which cooked some of the blood vessels near her heart.  She was not receiving sufficient blood to her heart.  An attempt to install a stent failed.  She needed bypass surgery.

I got a call from Salzburg to play an old man in Robert Wilson's production of Mozart's version of Handel's Messiah in January for Mozart Week.  I skipped 2 days of rehearsals in December when Wally had her initial surgery.

In early January 2020 I put Oskar with the dog sitter and went to Salzburg January 6 on a night train.  Then I returned after the last performance of January 31 on February 1 on a train through Innsbruck and Verona.

Wally had researched the best heart surgeons and hospitals in the Milan area.  She found a good surgeon who worked at Niguarda, a large hospital complex on the north side of Milan easily accessible by metro then tram.

Goal revision

At times you need to question whether your goals are realistic.  A short, stocky body type is more suited towards being a wrestler than a basketball player.

My partner Valentina and I both like to write but it has become apparent that the prospects of having our work published are very slim.  Even at a price of zero.

So our conclusion is that you do creative work, whether writing, painting, composing music, or photography, for your own consumption and satisfaction.  It is similar to cooking.

Fortunately, electronic media make these hobbies inexpensive and easy to distribute.  Much easier in fact than giving samples of your cooking to other people.

My next  effort is a short story entitled "The Wild Bunch" inspired by these guys.

 

Plague Test

This is a test meant to stimulate consideration of values.  There are no right or wrong answers, although some choices are probably more desireable than others.

Imagine a situation similar to that in the Bruce Willis film 12 Monkeys.   An airborne plague is distributed all over the world.  It has a germination period of about 30 days and is expected to reach every person in the world within 2 months.  There is a homeopathic antidote available but there is only enough of the active ingredient available to produce a pill that is 99% effective for 10% of the world population.  1% of the population has natural immunity to the plague.  A weak almost-placebo version can be produced for the 90% of the people who cannot be given the full version.  The placebo will have a 1% effectivity so it will save some people.  If someone takes more than one of the full dose tablets it will amount to an overdose and produce the plague rather than prevent it.  The tablets all appear the same to the recipients.  Only the top level of distributors know which are placebo and which are full dose.

Who do you give the placebo and who do you give the full dose?

James Carville, Karl Rove, and American Political Parties

Carville recently made comments on the Obama administrations handling of the BP oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.  His comments were not directed so much at the actions involved as in the public relations handling.  He said Obama should have gone to the site immediately.  I intended to criticise his view but I realized Karl Rove would have advised similar actions if it were a Republican in the same position..
None of these actions are aimed at handling the problem itself but only influencing public opinion.  If the purpose of political parties is only to take votes to hold office, then it is time for a radical change in the way the government is selected.

Remember Three Mile Island...or the Deepwater Horizon

The accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant spelled the end of nuclear power plant construction in the US for at least 40 years.
The blowout on the Deepwater Horizon and its subsequent demise could trigger a similar reaction to offshore drilling in the US.  At the very least it will mean delays in future drilling operations and the introduction of restrictive new rules for such drilling operations.
This will make American petroleum production more expensive and less competitive with imported petroleum products and as we have seen with Walmart and other American retail operations, it is not where the product comes from, but how much it costs in immediate dollars (as opposed to the long term overall price including government supplied insurance and military protection) which determines where the product comes from.
So, expect to see even a greater portion of American petroleum consumption to be supplied by importation with all the potential problems that that entails.

Warren Buffett and Goldman Sachs

Having read Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis back in the 80's and having learned of the deceit rife in the financial markets, I was surprised at the time when Warren Buffett took the leadership role at Solomon Brothers.  This was partially offset by his actions to correct the bad behavior of the employees there.

Then in 2009 he once again took a large stake in the even less reputable Goldman Sachs (GS).  All this was justified by the enormous returns he, or rather Berkshire Hathaway, was promised by the investment.

However, when the SEC recently filed a fraud suit against GS, the only response from the Buffett camp was a defense of GS.  Legal guilt or innocence has little to do with the reality.  When a person violates the law, they have violated the law, regardless of whether there is a court ruling to that effect.  A person is dead when they are dead, not when the death certificate is issued.

Buffett's action or lack of action damages his reputation.  He now falls into the same class as GS.

Consumer Price Index versus Cost of Living

The Consumer Price Index or CPI is a broad price index which is subject to manipulation by government bodies interested in making the public feel less apprehensive about the cost of living.
It does not really reflect my, or probably most people's true cost of living.  My cost of living has few relatively fixed components such as house insurance and many variable components like car repair.  The variable components can be vastly more than the fixed ones.  For example, a new house roof can cost tens of thousands.

As the government says, a person can substitute a less costly item for a more costly item to reduce their cost of living.

Just as Anheuser Busch deep freezes cans of Budweiser so they can compare the taste of a current brew with a brew from 30 years before, it is possible to make long time frame comparisons.  A VW in 1970 cost about 2k while a similar one in 2010 costs about 10 times as much.  The newer one may be better in many respects but it travels the same distance in about the same time.  And the main purpose of a VW is transport not entertainment.  A 2010 college education in English Literature at the University of Houston costs about 10 times as much as a 1970 program at the same school and in many subjects is virtually identical.

So meaningful gross long term comparisons in the cost of living can be made.

Devious people in government and business count on this inflation to make people feel better and to reduce the cost of long term debt.  The stock market counts on it to make it look like stocks are a good investment although the dividend yield has gone down over the last 30 years.

In summary, the CPI is relatively useless and you can somewhat control your cost of living by adjusting your spending to match your financial resources.

Underwater home values

The time to handle underwater home values is when the loan is made, not later.  For example, in Italy you can not get a mortgage for more than 60% of the value of a house unless you are a bank employee in which case it goes up to 70%.  Having put 30 to 40% of the price of a house as a down payment means people are more likely to take an interest in maintaining the value of a house.  Of course this requires the patience to accumulate a down payment.  While Italians are typically very impatient in traffic, they are more patient than Americans financially.  Most Europeans are raised to avoid excessive debt.  Americans are constantly encouraged to build more debt.  A very bad approach that is now bearing fruit: poisonous fruit.

A case for astrology

The claims that astrology or the position of celestial bodies could influence people seemed to be based solely
upon non-scientific reasons.  In 2000 I heard it discussed on a TV stock market broadcast that possibly
market behavior could be predicted using astrological techniques.

But basically astrology is just about relating the position of the stars to the time of year.

A couple years ago there was a study that traced the unusually high incidence of spina bifida in Scotland to insufficient folic acid in the fetus at a certain stage of development.

This means that if foods high in folic acid are not available at a certain time of year, it could affect the development of babies conceived some time before that.

So in this case the season or astrology does influence the future of the baby.

A case for ghosts

Someone leaves a seat and a few minutes later you sit in the same seat.
You can feel the heat from the previous occupant of the seat.  Maybe it was a soft seat of a material like leather or plastic that holds the shape for a while so you can tell roughly the size of the person.

A person you know leaves a room and some time later you enter the room and recognize their cologne.

In each case although the person is gone, there is a residual indication left inadvertently by the person.

Birds have senses for direction that people do not seem to have, but there may be in some people a form of this sense which helps them to have a keener sense of direction.

So although we do not know definitely all the senses that human beings have, it is possible that some people have unrecognized abilities to sense things other people cannot.

It is possible that when people die, there is a residue left behind that some, but not most, people can sense. 
Possibly the residue is more apparent in some cases than others.

These factors could explain the perception of so-called ghosts.

The World Health Organization

If the following statement from an article on Bloomberg is correct, I have little confidence in any estimates coming from the WHO:

About 33.4 million people were infected with the AIDS- causing virus worldwide as of the end of 2008, according to the WHO, making it the world’s most prevalent infectious disease.

How can they state 33.4 million?  If they said about 30 million, or tens of  millions, I could accept it, but there are so many reasons for it NOT being about 33.4 million that it reflects upon the integrity of anyone giving such a precise number.

A similar situation occurred after the Pacific tsunami which eventually killed over 200, 000 people.  The initial numbers were invariably precise:  2,581, then 31,528.  All ridiculous to anyone on the spot or who had seen images of the devastation.

Where is the Transportation Security Administration when you need them?

About 3000 people have been killed by aircraft terrorists in the last 10 years.
In the same period roughly 200,000 people in the US have been killed in car accidents (if that is really the term for it) involving drunken drivers.

So why is so much attention given to the terrorists and so little to drunken drivers?  TSA should have agents patrolling the roads all over the country between 1700 and 0300 looking for drunken drivers.  It would give lots of people jobs, sell lots of cars to the TSA, and reduce the number of people who die on the roadways.

Government financial forecasts and the media that repeats them

I just read that the administration is considering a tax on banks that will recover a certain sum over10 years.  This is the same kind of thinking that 10 years ago had the media reporting that the government expected a budget surplus of $1 trillion over the period to now. 
These clowns cannot forecast with any degree of accuracy one year forward and they are telling us how it will be in 10 years.  And the media just repeats the numbers with never a challenge.

Representation without Taxation or Public Service?

There seems to be much concern about excessive taxation and complaints about the growth of government.
This has not happened overnight and it may take a long time to slow the growth of government.
Part of the problem with the American (and other countries as well) arrangement is that people are entitled to rights and privileges such as voting without ever having contributed in any way to the country.
It would not be difficult or absurd to require some form of public contribution before a person could claim any rights. 
This will not happen soon in the US because there are too many people who wish to take without ever giving.

Voter qualification

The movement in the US to make it easier to become a voter is a step in the wrong direction.  The original constitutional voter requirements were very restrictive and meant a person had to have a vested interest in the welfare of the country by owning property.
I do not think property ownership should determine who votes, but I would like to see a test that would indicate some knowledge of how the government functions or is supposed to function.
For example, knowledge that appropriation bills are initiated in the House and not the Senate or the Executive Dept.
The idea that because you were born in the US and are of sufficient age, should not be enough to let you vote.  My dogs have better judgment than a lot of people who are allowed to vote.  And probably better judgment than a lot of people who are elected to office.

Detroit versus Port Sudan

Having recently seen a few films made in large, old, decayed American cities, for example Detroit or Philadelphia, I was depressed by how deteriorated some of these places appear in films.  Almost on a par with cities ravaged by wars.
Then I was scanning google earth and decided to home in on Port Sudan.
Port Sudan looks much more prosperous and agreeable than Detroit.
I know Detroit has good areas, but if I were looking for work as a logistics guy or even IT, which would be more desirable and less dangerous, Detroit or Port Sudan?

Stravinski's Firebird and the Rite of Spring

Decades ago when I bought records as much for price as for content, I bought a LP of Stravinski's Firebird on one side and Debussy's Nocturnes on the other.  I liked both sides but have listened to the Firebird hundreds of times in the last 40 years and the Debussy much less.

In mid 2009 we had the opportunity to see Stravinski's The Rake's Progress at La Scala.  It was a most elaborate, modern production but not having heard the music before, I was not overly enthusiastic about the opera music itself.

Now we have seen 3 ballets in the Béjart Serata at La Scala.  The 3 were the Firebird, Mahler's Errant Champignon, and Stravinski's Rite of Spring.  The Mahler piece had a male vocal accompanist and 2 dancers.  It was very pleasant but not exciting like the Rite of Spring.  The choreography of the Firebird was so closely matched to the music that it was astounding.  Since I knew the music for so long, I always wondered how it would look.  I think I expected a more elaborate costume for the Firebird but I was not disappointed.

The Rite of Spring was also very well tied to the music and in this case put more meaning into the music which I was not familiar with.

Precision versus accuracy

A few years ago someone explained the difference between precision and accuracy but I did not grasp it and am not sure I understand it now, except maybe with this example from recent experience with both digital and analog bathroom scales.
What is seems to me is precision is the refinement of the number being given.  For example, my new digital bathroom scale says I am 77.7 kg.  So it indicates a precision to the nearest tenth of a kilogram.  Whatsmore it will give this answer 3 times in a row from an off setting to the reading.  Now this could be just clever programming on the part of the scale manufacturer who makes the scale give the same reading as previously if the new reading is within say 1% of the previous measurement.  This would mean the scale would only need to remember one value when it is off.

Accuracy is an indication of how close the measurement is to reality.  If I actually weigh 50 kg and the scale says 77.7, it does not mean much that there is an indicated precision of about 0.1 kg when the real value is so different.  I would rather a scale give an accurate but less precise reading than a precisely inaccurate value.

This brings us to the confusing area of modern economic forecasting.  I recall a joke in the Economist many years ago:
Why do economists give their estimates of future events to the nearest tenth of a per cent?
Answer: To show they have a sense of humor.

Unfortunately, I suspect this is not the reason they give these kinds of responses.  I will let you list the numerous possibilities, most of which are not complimentary to the estimators, especially those employed by universities, governments, banks, and investment advisors.

It therefore pleased me recently to hear repeatedly that Ben Bernanke and other government financial officials were forecasting a weak recovery rather than giving precise numbers.  Having said that, there are frequently many reasons for government officials to lie about what they think and about what they know and that is not dependent upon the form of government.   While they try to appear upbeat about the future, this may in fact prevent actions being taken which would improve the situation.

So in general in the future I will try to be less precise and more accurate.  An easy approach to this is to give estimates in 3 classes: small, medium, or large. 
What will the US deficit be next year?  Large.
What are the chances the new US health insurance plan will be well executed?  Small.
What will future US petroleum imports be?  Large.
What are my chances of losing a little weight in the next year?  Medium.  I have to be a little optimistic or I won't even try.